from washington, the mclaughlin group. the american original. for over two decades, the sharpest minds, best sources, hardest talk. the mclaughlin group is brought to you by metlife. guarantees for the if in life. issue one, latino poder. ♪ [ music ] > latinos are focused like a laser beam on the economy, job

creation, high levels of debt very consistent with the general market and mainstream america. that's the story of latino voters as they culture ate, they think very much along the economic lines and that is the silver lining that conservatives see. >> latinos are sometimes called hispanics and both words will be used interchangeably here. hispanics are the fastest growing minority group in the u.s. in 2009, hispanics made up 16% of the u.s. population, with 48 million people. latinos make up about 9% of all eligible u.s. voters. up from 7% of voters in the 2008 presidential election. but latinos play an even larger role in races where they make up significant voting blocks. latino voters could be game changers in house and senate races where the latin population is high. this is also true in the contest for governor in

california, voters favor democrats over republicans. the margin is polled that 65 to 22 percent. 65 democrats, 22% republican. this makes republicans cringe. but whether hispanics will actually vote is another matter. a new poll shows 56% of hispanic voters state they are absolutely certain they will vote compared to 70% of all registered voters who so say. if latinos stay home, democrats fear their fire wall will collapse. so this week, barack obama sounded the alarm. >> don't forget who your friends are. >> question, 70% of all registered voters say they are certain they will vote a week from tuesday. only 51% of latinos voters as

we noted there, say they are certain they will vote on next tuesday -- a week from tuesday. what is the reason why latino voters are not more fired up, pat? >> latino voters are younger. they are newer. they are less cultureated into the country so far, john. they have less interest in politics. it is not 2008. you had a huge national exciting election with obama and mccain. and there are only 7.4% electorate. you can't get that turnout when you have local and state elections where they don't have that much interest. secondly, it is true. the four or five main concerns are important to everyone else. obama has not delivered. the democrats did not deliver at all on immigration. they are bitter about the fact he didn't go for a vote. some leaders are saying don't come out. i don't think they will come out in big numbers. but long-term, they are a terrible problem for

republicans, because reagan got 44%. bush got 40%. mccain got 32%. this electorate, 50 million people will be by mid century between 130 million in united states. >> there are some ads funded by republican outside groups or groups everyone threatic to groups -- >> they called those out now. they no longer allow to run them. >> well, i know about them, so they made an impression. the republicans have really alienated the hispanic vote and the democrats have pointed out, haven't delivered. i think the president, he promised he would have a bill in his first year. he tried to get republicans to work with him. he couldn't. and i don't think he played the politics right. he should have forced a confrontation and made the republicans filibuster it so he could go out there and say i tried and these are the people who prevented it. he didn't play the politics

correctly. he is out there now trying to raise enthusiasm in places like nevada. hispanics are a quarter of the vote. if harry reid survives, it will be thanks to the hispanic vote. this is a test vote for the president's message. that is that he needs time. he can't turn around this economy in two years and make up for the previous eight years and that's basically his message. he is asking the voters for time and he is asking them to compare the democrat against the republican and the republican brand is in far worse shape. >> harry reid is the majority leader, so it's an important election. >> and nevada is crucial when you talk about the latino vote, as is in california. i think latinos could be a wild card in this election. there could be a number of wild cards, latinos certainly one of them. while it is true, i think a number of latinos are bitterly disappointed that the obama administration didn't press further along with comprehensive immigration reform. some others may be really upset

with the republican party about the arizona illegal immigration law that the republican governor, jan brewer put in place in arizona. so you sort of have this dispierted latin voter block, where they are upset with the democrats and the republicans. i think to clump in all of latinos in that category and say they are going to stay home. they are disspiritted. i think to that voting block, as with every other american in this country, they are worried first and foremost about the state of the economy and the job situation. just like with african americans, latinos wore the burden and obama can say give me more time, but i think latinos just with every other voting constituency in america, they are saying look, you had almost two years. you have taken a bad economic situation and made it worse. where are the jobs? and they aren't getting adequate answers to that. >> are we following ms.

martinez possibility -- >> she women vying for the governorship in new mexico and susana martinez is going to win. >> this will be the first time in american history that a republican latino woman will be governor of a state. >> and a border state. >> first latina and latino. > no, there has been latinos. >> richardson for one. >> mort, can you shed some light on this? >> number one, a huge percentage of the latino community works in the residential construction world. particularly in all the southern states. california, nevada, texas, florida, you name it. and of their homes, which waare really hurting in this economy. i don't know how it's going to

react politically, but they have lost a gigantic number of jobs. over a million, 5 million in that industry alone. that's one thing that is going to affect them. the other is, i have attended the speech that obama made here in washington really calling for immigration reform. and it was attended by almost all the latino leaders and latina leaders in this country. there was both an appreciation that he was making the pitch, but a sense it was late in the game. it had politics because it was close to the election. where was he earlier on when they really expected him to really make a serious push? so i agree in a sense with what eleanor was saying, he hasn't played the politics as well as i imagine i thought he would. >> let's go to the exit question. the mark rubio appears to be a likely win as senator from florida, a latino man, of course. question, a cuban american, but

latino. yes or no? >> don't congregate all these folks mexican, cubans in the same bag. >> they are in the latino caucus, are they not? well there's your bag for you. question, on a political probability scale 0 to 10. 0 meaning zero probability, what is the likelihood that 3/4 of eligible hispanics will vote one week from tuesday? 0 to 10. 3/4, climbing from 51%. >> to 3/4? >> no. >> no? >> zero. >> 75% turnout, you aren't going to see in any group and i will point out that the seat marco rubio looks like he might win was occupied by senator martinez, who again is somebody from the latino community. >> i would say probably 0 to 1. in the 2008 campaign. barack obama's campaign and the dnc poured an unprecedented $20 million into targeting hispanic

turnout. they aren't doing the same. but you know who is? they are pouring tens and millions of dollars into targeting hispanic voter turnout and they could have a real effect. >> what is that? >> the service employees international union. >> uh-huh. >> mort. >> andy stern was ahead of that. i agree with eleanor. there will not be a single community that is going to vote to the extent of 75%. having said that, their numbers will go up in this world. >> 70%? >> i don't know. >> 65%? >> 65%. >> i'll stick with you, mort. when we come back, will both the house and senate go republican? boss: and now i'll turn it over to the gecko.

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issue two, not a race, a referendum? >> the midterm elections a week from tuesday are seen as a referendum on president obama.

president obama's national approval ratings hover now just below 50%. if you accept that voters will cast their ballots on whether they like mr. obama or dislike him, we will experience a wave election. an antiincumbent and antidemocrat tsunami, many believe. most pollsters and pundits agree they will seize the majority. can republicans also flip the u.s. senate? republicans need to pick up ten seats from the democrats to reach a majority of 51 seats. this year, 18 republican held seateds and 19 held seats are up for reelection. the gop is favored to win their 18 seats that are up. they are one vulnerable seat is the state of kentucky. it's a tossup. but 12 of the democrats 19

seats are in jeopardy. republicans need 10. here are the democrats 12 seats. arkansas, california, colorado, connecticut, illinois, indiana, nevada, north dakota, pennsylvania, washington, west virginia, wisconsin. all to repeat democratic held seats. all seats are in jeopardy. all where republicans could win on election day. republicans have to have a near perfect night, however, themselves on november 2 to take control of the upper chamber. to gain the majority, the gop must do two things. one, hold all 18 of its currently held seats, including kentucky which is a tossup. that would bring them to 41 seats. two, win ten of the 12 vulnerable democratic seats. >> question, a new poll shows

that the turnout advantage is shifting even more towards republicans. 50%. republicans to 40%. democrats, why is this shift significant? eleanor. >> well first of all, i would dispute some of what you said. this is a volatile electorate and the pollsters aren't sure they are finding the right groups to poll. nobody is quite sure who is going to show up. i think the races are all tightening. the republicans could have a very good night. on the other hand, i think the democrats have a pretty good shot of keeping control of the senate and about a 30% chance of holding on to the house. so i'm not going to make any sweeping predictions here because news week is doing polling for our issue coming out next week and this first night of polling suggested that the democrats have a slight advantage in who do you prefer? the democrat or the republican. and the early voting in most places except for nevada seem to show more of a democratic

surge than a republican surge. so maybe democrats have woken up to the threat that is posed here in the final days. >> is she overly exuberant? >> no. kentucky is not only a tossup. pennsylvania is a tossup. moved a point ahead. he closed -- >> at what party? >> he's a democratic congressman and he is tied up with tumi now. everything in the republican side, john, because a lot of races are very, very tight. it depends. will there be this republican wave which sort of goes over everybody and adds 3 or 4 points to everybody, in which case republicans have a long shot case of picking up the senate. i would bet no to the senate and i don't know, people talking 60, 70 seats in the house. i don't see that. maybe they will get 45, 50. >> this early voting, are they counting these early votes now? >> i think they are probably talking to people when they come out of these places and asking them how they are voting and democrats are doing okay. >> they aren't doing a count.

>> you can't count the vote until election day. >> okay, what do you have? >> is this a full election at this time. it is a referendum on his administration and this democratic congress. what i think -- i think it is true that we are seeing a lot of these races start to tighten up as races naturally do as you get closer to election day. not only is it a referendum on unpopular big government, big spending, big deficit policies of this administration, but you have an enormous enthusiasm gap where conservatives and republicans are jazzed about voting in a week and a half and you also have the hemorrhaging. if oh obama is trying to rally his base, in order for him to retain his majorities even in the congress, you would have to get his base and democrats and independents as excited this time as they were in 2008 and

that is absolutely impossible. >> what about the turnout advantage? >> i think there will be a turnout advantage for the republicans this time and it's also in part a reflection of what we were just talking about, which is the intensity. the intensity is clearly overwelmingly on the republican side and i'll tell you, one other thing, a huge number of people in this country have been affected by the major drop in the value of their homes, which was the largest equity on the balance sheet of the average american family and we have one in every five families who has somebody unemployed. everybody knows somebody. this is a national election for that reason because the economy and the problems with it are placed at the doorstep of the white house and of obama. >> so is this a referendum on barack obama? >> an you should be ashamed for sacrificing nikki diaz on the alter of your political ambitions. >> you have blamed her, blamed the left, blamed the

unions, but you don't take accountability. >> it's gloves off in the race for governor of california. former ebay ceo and republican gubernatorial hopeful, meg whitman accused jerry brown of magnifying a household mishap into a national embarrassment that has hampered her campaign. namely the accidental hiring by the whit manns husband and wife of an illegal immigrant as a housekeeper who now alleges that meg whitman knew what her status was. >> she knew that and i don't have papers to work here. >> the incident initially set whitman back in the polls until an associate of jerry brown was recorded on a police union voice member's voice mail machine calling meg whitman a name. brown apologized for the comment, but appeared to some

to stumble in the debate when he tried to explain away the slur. claiming faulty message transmission. >> this is a five week old private conversation picked up on a cell phone with a garble transmission, very hard to detect who it is. this is not -- i don't want to get into the term and how it is used. i will say the campaign apologized promptly and i affirm that apology tonight. >> so jerry, it's not just me. it's the people of california who deserve better than slurs and personal attacks. that's not what california is about. it is not our better self-s. >> a poll released late wednesday gives brown an 8 point lead over whitman among likely voters, 44 to 36 percent brown. why is the campaign for california governor becoming so mean spirited and which candidate benefits more from that mean spiritedness? eleanor. >> i think it's mean spirited

on both sides. i do think that the flap over the hiring or knowingly perhaps having an illegal immigrant considering all of her rhetoric. i think that's really damaged her. and i think the use of the word on the brown camp, i'm not going to defend that. the issue was that she cut a deal to get an endorsement from a law enforcement agency even though she talks publicly about cutting back on all their pensions. she cut a deal with them. so that's how the use of that word came in. and i think there's a killer ad in this race and it's done, i believe, by joe who has been involved in some major campaigns and they have taken all of meg whitman's statements and they matched them up exactly with what arnold schwarzenegger said when he was running about how they will create jobs and how they are different. schwarzenegger's popularity is in the 20s and you also have a population skeptical whether

somebody from the outside business world can come in again and work with government. schwarzenegger wasn't able to do it. it's unlikely she will either. >> do you think schwarzenegger is going to work for the democrats? >> i think it's an effective ad. i don't know how much it changes -- >> schwarzenegger is that much of a drag? >> he's a huge drag. i think she is hurt more by a smear campaign. she came in extremely fresh, new, and you get two people in the smear thing -- >> the latino thing was the killer for her. >> the lady is persuasive. let's say this develops and the meg whitman says there's nothing i can do for you. >> it's not an issue. >> if the lady wanted to stay in the united states because the immigration officers said you have to go back to mexico. >> look at the ratio in california and the sleeper is barbra boxer may be in trouble. carly fiorina is running almost even for the senate seat. >> what is the point?

they could lose california? >> whitman is in much more trouble than fiorina. >> you think is this a california move? >> there's a large hispanic population in california. >> who has the most votes? >> california does. >> it's to go. >> john -- whitman won she would be on every short list for the president. >> oh really? >> president meg, we'll be >> president meg, we'll be right back with predictions. the forecast is full of ifs. retirement these days, if i'm too exposed to downturns. if i'll go through my savings too fast. to help you feel more confident consider putting a portion of your savings in a metlife variable annuity. when the market goes up, it gives your assets a potential to grow. while protecting you if the market goes down with a steady stream of income. metlife annuities have helped over a million people stay on course with guarantees for the if in life.

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predictions, the republicans will win the senate, yes or no? >> one vote short. >> no, in all the races that will tight will tighten more. >> 50/50 split, dead even. >> yes, the republicans will control the senate. 51 seats. >> you're right, mort. have you been traveling? >> i have. >>